VIVAAAAA LAS VEGAS! The combat sports capital of the world is going to be buzzing with excitement as the world’s first sporting event is held at the hottest venue in modern entertainment, The Sphere. Fans all over the world are blessed to see the Suga Show defend his belt against number one contender, Merab Dvalishvili. Sean O’Malley comes in after an incredibly dominant title defense against Marlon “Chito” Vera in the spring. With a win against the Georgian and Syndicate MMA bantamweight, he could be in early conversations to establish his spot in the greatest UFC bantamweight of all time.
The betting odds on the bout have been rapidly changing since it was announced. On Mexican Independence Day, we are seeing Sean O’Malley as the betting favorite at -135 via BetMGM. The line has likely been in flux due to questionable decisions that have come from the camp of Merab Dvalishvili. He posted a photo of what looked to be a significant cut above the right eye. He then followed up by appearing to jokingly stitch himself. Dana White has been vocal about the decision and how stupid of a look it has been. At one point, White even said after DWCS that he believed Merab “was just f*****g with me”.
On top of this, Merab has been vocal about wanting to knock out O’Malley and utilize his cardio. For Merab to win this fight, the simplest path to victory is going to be using the world class wresting in his arsenal. This seems simple. However, just over a year ago, he we saw O’Malley manage to evade these attempts from close friend and training partner, Aljamain Sterling. O’Malley has excellent distance control and head movement. If Merab does get sucked into a striking battle, he may see his fate wind up the same way as Aljo’s with getting finished early in the fight.
Merab has had issues with taking shots to this point and being temporarily stunned and knocked down. In my personal belief, no-one in the bantamweight division has the power and accuracy in his striking techniques as Sugar. For O’Malley, I don’t think anyone has ever presented this bulldog type mentality to get a fight to the ground. A tactic I expect Merab to use this Saturday night. With both of these things being true, it leads me to think the fight does not go the distance. The odds on this fight not to go the distance are +100 on BetMGM.